Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a7f…e4a4 sports 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+2%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%69W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$9
14 days+$29
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$19
other 42% +$43
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +9.4% -1.0% 72% 69% -10.3%
≤30d 47 +12.2% +1.5% 74% 72% -4.2%
≤90d 112 +1.4% -8.3% 62% 60% -8.3%
all 112 +1.4% -8.3% 62% 60% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 60% -8.3%
10% -17.1% 49% -17.1%
15% -25.1% 41% -25.1%
20% -32.4% 27% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses69 / 43
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage55d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$25 +50%
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 27 $10 +$4 +42%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +18%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $162 −$152 -94%
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 25 $20 +$9 +46%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$9 -46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +38%
Morocco to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$24 +48%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$12 +60%
England to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 +$5 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +9%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$5 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$22 +54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 +$32 +45%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 −$26 -75%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$26 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +46%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $61 +$50 +82%
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $30 +$16 +54%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $22 −$19 -86%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 26h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $10 36h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 36h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 42h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $33 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $61 44h
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 44h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $20 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $10 2d
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 34¢ $11 2d
Morocco to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.95 · official $39.95 (match) · 256 history records