Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0A 0x0a7e…b805 sports 567 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$943 (-1%) realized −$1,001 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%254W / 312L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$1,164est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 193d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$3,663
other 2% −$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 60% 53% -12.1%
≤30d 70 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 43% -7.6%
≤90d 423 -29.3% -36.0% 33% 32% -23.4%
all 566 -7.4% -16.3% 45% 44% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 44% -13.1%
10% -24.3% 43% -21.4%
15% -31.6% 40% -29.0%
20% -38.3% 34% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$135 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized−$1,001
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses254 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$1,164
Open positions1
Markets (closed)566 / 567
History coverage193d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 566 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 28¢ 36¢ $232 $290 +$58 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 28 $623 +$208 +33%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $418 +$206 +49%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $196 −$191 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $224 −$221 -99%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $419 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $220 +$196 +89%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $500 −$491 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $286 +$434 +152%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S Jun 27 $383 −$377 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $102 +$88 +86%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $230 +$155 +67%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 27 $197 +$31 +16%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $274 −$270 -98%
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders Jun 27 $469 +$197 +42%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $288 −$104 -36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $48 +$26 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $98 +$110 +112%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $137 −$135 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $70 +$67 +95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $182 −$82 -45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $34 +$83 +246%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $92 +$130 +142%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $99 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $88 −$87 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $90 +$98 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $50 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $109 −$107 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $117 −$60 -51%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $158 −$34 -22%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $78 +$12 +16%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $50 +$28 +57%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $58 +$13 +22%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $187 −$85 -45%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jun 02 $117 −$115 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $101 +$117 +116%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $98 −$97 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $72 −$71 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $152 −$52 -34%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $101 +$34 +34%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 02 $66 +$80 +121%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 4 Winner Jun 01 $21 +$166 +811%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $214 −$57 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 28¢ $237 57m
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL ECHO 68¢ $831 1h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY ECHO 50¢ $623 1h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner SELL Sharks 100¢ $624 2h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 66¢ $418 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 15¢ $196 14h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 52¢ $224 14h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $66 14h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $10 14h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $5 14h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $8 14h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $194 14h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $137 14h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $419 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 96¢ $417 16h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 41¢ $500 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 50¢ $220 18h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Keyd (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship S BUY Keyd 46¢ $383 19h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series SELL ALKA 100¢ $191 20h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY ALKA 53¢ $102 20h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $286 20h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $384 23h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 59¢ $230 26h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL Mentality Monster 100¢ $227 32h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 86¢ $197 34h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $274 37h
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders SELL Toronto Argonauts 86¢ $666 37h
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Toronto Argonauts 55¢ $287 39h
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Toronto Argonauts 70¢ $66 40h
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Toronto Argonauts 70¢ $6 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.73 · official $289.73 (match) · 1353 history records