Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0A 0x0a7e…c00a sports 601 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,779 (-5%) realized −$7,779 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%244W / 345L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$1,262est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 225d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$2,281
other 7% +$6,895
crypto 2% −$456
culture 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +104.1% +84.7% 59% 59% +116.1%
≤30d 27 +81.2% +64.0% 56% 56% +69.6%
≤90d 339 -21.3% -28.8% 36% 34% -13.7%
all 589 -4.4% -13.5% 41% 38% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 38% -7.1%
10% -21.8% 34% -16.0%
15% -29.3% 32% -24.1%
20% -36.3% 29% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$130 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,779
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses244 / 345
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,262
Open positions0
Markets (closed)589 / 601
History coverage225d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 589 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $404 −$306 -76%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $406 +$462 +114%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $303 −$296 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 29 $405 +$322 +79%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Algeria w Jun 28 $700 +$1,264 +181%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Arge Jun 28 $800 +$3,087 +386%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $308 −$300 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $205 −$134 -65%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Portugal Jun 27 $700 −$32 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $700 +$689 +98%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Fr Jun 27 $693 +$1,393 +201%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belg Jun 27 $696 +$2,695 +387%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $103 −$94 -91%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $713 −$325 -46%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 27 $508 −$27 -5%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 26 $709 +$519 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $715 +$1,619 +226%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $506 +$356 +70%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 25 $305 −$301 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $164 +$683 +416%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $717 +$3,352 +467%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arg Jun 23 $703 +$1,256 +179%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 20 $1,044 −$595 -57%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $1,354 −$313 -23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,199 +$157 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $704 +$493 +70%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $1,008 −$995 -99%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 20 $703 −$697 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $551 +$151 +28%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO3) - Esports Worl May 19 $698 +$190 +27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $723 −$718 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 16 $347 −$341 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $1,615 −$561 -35%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $603 +$305 +50%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 16 $716 −$710 -99%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 16 $281 −$281 -100%
Game Handicap: LNG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5) May 16 $288 −$288 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 16 $272 −$272 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $1,121 −$1,121 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $708 −$700 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 16 $710 +$585 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $1,414 +$27 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $715 −$20 -3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 15 $1,136 +$299 +26%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $1,026 +$111 +11%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $725 +$300 +41%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) May 15 $300 +$44 +15%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Gam May 15 $573 +$205 +36%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $807 +$67 +8%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings May 15 $203 −$126 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 17¢ $98 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $404 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $869 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $406 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 28¢ $4 18h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 62¢ $303 18h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 55¢ $405 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 10¢ $308 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 4¢ $71 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 45h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Arge BUY 24¢ $679 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Portugal SELL 22¢ $668 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Arge BUY 9¢ $1,000 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will BUY 15¢ $996 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND Will A BUY 37¢ $1,000 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Arge BUY 20¢ $800 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Austria w BUY 5¢ $499 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Algeria w BUY 35¢ $700 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Portugal BUY 22¢ $700 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 21¢ $388 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 46¢ $481 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 47¢ $508 3d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun AND PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sk BUY 44¢ $500 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $713 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY 50¢ $700 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 24¢ $500 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Fr BUY 33¢ $693 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belg BUY 9¢ $698 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1557 history records