Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0A 0x0a7d…1657 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$869per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,044now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$3
14 days−$5
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$21
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-62.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -42.8% -48.2% 57% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 -44.3% -49.6% 56% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 24 -58.3% -62.2% 42% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -58.3% -62.2% 42% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -65.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -69.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -72.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,058) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -67% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$2,044
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage44d
Avg bet$869
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,036 $2,039 +$3 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26? Jun 27 $2,031 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 26? Jun 26 $2,028 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25? Jun 26 $2,024 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,019 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6? Jun 07 $2,074 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? Jun 06 $2,071 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $2,064 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $2,064 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? Jun 05 $2,062 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $2,058 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 16? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $2,036 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $2,031 8h
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,028 27h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $2,024 31h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $2,019 45h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 11d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $5 13d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $2,074 20d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $2,071 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $2,064 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $2,064 22d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $2,062 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,058 23d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 33d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23? BUY No 0¢ $4 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 38d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 41d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? BUY No 0¢ $4 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,044.22 · official $2,044.22 (match) · 37 history records