Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a7c…8964 sports 1061 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,645 (+3%) realized +$5,689 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%547W / 506L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Fees−$2,509est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,290
7 days−$33,433
14 days−$28,293
30 days−$7,152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$2,522
other 2% +$1,144
world 0% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -81.0% -82.8% 10% 10% -83.3%
≤30d 461 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 49% -15.4%
≤90d 1053 +2.6% -7.1% 52% 51% -7.8%
all 1053 +2.6% -7.1% 52% 51% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 51% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 49% -16.6%
15% -24.1% 44% -24.6%
20% -31.6% 37% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$153 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$1,596
Realized+$5,689
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses547 / 506
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2,509
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1053 / 1061
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$185
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1053 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Esport Academy Copenhagen 30¢ 100¢ $99 $329 +$230 (+233%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group B ECHO 59¢ 78¢ $236 $314 +$78 (+33%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Team Liquid 37¢ 40¢ $249 $274 +$25 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B OG 51¢ 52¢ $233 $235 +$2 (+1%)
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $187 $189 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A 9INE 47¢ 25¢ $232 $123 −$109 (-47%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $80 $77 −$3 (-3%)
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5 Over 57¢ 57¢ $52 $53 +$0 (+1%)
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Grind Back 49¢ 0¢ $270 $0 −$270 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 263 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $577 +$303 +52%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $177 +$215 +121%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $240 +$227 +94%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $228 +$249 +109%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $165 −$164 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $374 +$160 +43%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $179 −$177 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $138 −$137 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $219 +$440 +201%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $155 +$175 +113%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $239 +$118 +49%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $227 −$227 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $67 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $192 −$189 -99%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $244 +$228 +93%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) Jun 19 $204 −$201 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $257 +$100 +39%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $209 +$152 +72%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $152 −$152 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $243 −$241 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $39 +$33 +85%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $237 +$226 +95%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $236 +$111 +47%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $249 −$245 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 17 $107 −$105 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $214 −$214 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $146 −$146 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 17 $223 −$223 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) Jun 17 $194 −$194 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Andrea Jun 17 $221 −$221 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Jun 17 $177 −$177 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $243 −$243 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 17 $158 −$158 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winne Jun 17 $164 −$164 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $187 −$187 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fok Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $175 −$174 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $255 −$255 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 17 $181 −$181 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $127 −$127 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 51¢ $156 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 51¢ $32 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 57¢ $53 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY Grind Back 47¢ $88 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY Grind Back 50¢ $24 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY Grind Back 49¢ $92 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY Grind Back 49¢ $68 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 65¢ $100 3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 66¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 66¢ $194 3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 66¢ $67 3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 65¢ $65 3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 65¢ $149 3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 45¢ $39 5h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 46¢ $20 5h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 45¢ $119 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $42 15h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY ECHO 59¢ $239 16h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 30¢ $71 16h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 30¢ $27 16h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $73 17h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $85 17h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $7 17h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $25 17h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 52¢ $67 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $173 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 44¢ $36 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 45¢ $19 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 44¢ $106 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,595.64 · official $1,595.64 (match) · 3500 history records