Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a79…8ebd politics 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% +$1
world 42% $0
other 11% +$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 50% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 50% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 50% 0% -10.0%
all 37 +0.1% -9.5% 35% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage325d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -11%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $123 −$3 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $43 +$1 +2%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Sep 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Aug 10 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 03 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $75 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 01 $9 $0 +3%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Syria by July 31? Aug 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jul 29 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 28 $68 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 28 $67 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $17 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $17 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $46 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $47 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $28 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $48 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $48 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $8 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $36 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $43 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $47 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $48 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.73 · official $46.73 (match) · 101 history records