Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a79…a940 other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$27
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$42
sports 27% −$24
politics 8% −$8
culture 6% −$9
economics 6% −$6
crypto 4% −$5
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage139d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $332 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $365 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $326 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $390 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $406 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $415 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $569 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $284 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $140 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $313 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $156 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $247 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $116 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $395 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $228 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $461 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $307 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $230 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $329 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $411 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 4h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 6h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 8h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $24 8h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $29 9h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $29 10h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 10h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $20 12h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $20 13h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 13h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 15h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 16h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 18h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 20h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 24h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 25h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 28h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 30h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 34h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 35h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 39h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 40h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 43h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 45h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 46h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 47h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.23 · official $53.23 (match) · 1430 history records