Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0A 0x0a77…9d74 sports 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (316 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$53,894 (+9%) realized +$53,853 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%85W / 220L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,239per market
Trades / day316.2pace
Fees−$7,720est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$17,487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$10,891
other 13% +$5,532
world 1% −$2,253
crypto 0% +$2,335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (316 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 237 -57.8% -61.9% 21% 20% -58.4%
≤30d 305 -42.1% -47.6% 28% 27% -43.1%
≤90d 305 -42.1% -47.6% 28% 27% -43.1%
all 305 -42.1% -47.6% 28% 27% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover316.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.6% 27% -43.1%
10% -52.6% 25% -48.5%
15% ← realistic here -57.2% 22% -53.5%
20% -61.4% 20% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$4,352) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -84% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
18.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,125 vs −$2,395 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$17,487
Realized+$53,853
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses85 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$7,720
Open positions9
Markets (closed)305 / 182
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$3,239
Trades / day316.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 64¢ 64¢ $3,999 $4,036 +$37 (+1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 44¢ 46¢ $3,376 $3,505 +$129 (+4%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Austria 61¢ 62¢ $2,800 $2,869 +$69 (+2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 55¢ $2,800 $2,725 −$75 (-3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 51¢ 54¢ $2,500 $2,622 +$123 (+5%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 50¢ 44¢ $896 $803 −$92 (-10%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ 44¢ $753 $649 −$103 (-14%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 56¢ 48¢ $320 $274 −$46 (-14%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 55¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 196 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 22 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 22 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 22 $1,832 −$1,832 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 22 $5,074 −$5,074 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 22 $205 −$205 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 22 $3,983 −$3,983 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 22 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 22 $289 −$289 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 22 $3,626 −$3,626 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 22 $2,001 −$2,001 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 22 $4,532 −$4,532 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Jun 22 $2,074 −$2,074 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics Jun 22 $1,707 −$1,707 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Jun 22 $750 −$750 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 22 $1,499 −$1,499 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets Jun 22 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 22 $4,352 −$4,352 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 22 $4,999 −$4,999 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Jun 22 $1,499 −$1,499 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 22 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jun 22 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 22 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 22 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 22 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 22 $4,999 −$4,999 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 22 $2,501 −$2,501 -100%
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 22 $78 −$78 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 22 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,801 −$2,801 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 22 $341 −$341 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) Jun 22 $2,203 −$2,203 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 22 $1,595 −$1,595 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 22 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 22 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Jun 22 $3,112 −$3,112 -100%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-16? Jun 22 $750 −$750 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 22 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 22 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Jun 22 $6,173 −$6,173 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 22 $4,999 −$4,999 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $2,425 −$2,425 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 22 $1,755 −$1,755 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 22 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 22 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 22 $796 −$796 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 22 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 22 $3,529 −$3,529 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 22 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $4 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $74 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $37 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $19 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $5 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $4 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $15 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $1 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $23 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $60 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $1 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $75 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $8 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $2 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $37 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $22 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $7 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $29 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $74 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $15 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $2 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $65 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $2,681 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $119 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $2,800 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2,800 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $106 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,487.08 · official $17,487.08 (match) · 3500 history records