Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a74…0da5 crypto 762 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$159 (-2%) realized −$159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate48%364W / 398L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day54.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$127
14 days−$222
30 days−$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$579
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 -2.0% -11.3% 38% 21% -15.0%
≤30d 562 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 27% -13.3%
≤90d 762 -5.7% -14.7% 48% 31% -14.3%
all 762 -5.7% -14.7% 48% 31% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 31% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 19% -22.5%
15% -30.3% 14% -30.0%
20% -37.1% 10% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses364 / 398
Open positions0
Markets (closed)762 / 762
History coverage54d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day54.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 762 Trades
no open positions (111 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$4 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $22 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3112 history records