Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a71…58be crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-9%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -43.4% -48.8% 20% 20% -53.2%
≤30d 5 -43.4% -48.8% 20% 20% -53.2%
≤90d 5 -43.4% -48.8% 20% 20% -53.2%
all 5 -43.4% -48.8% 20% 20% -53.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.8% 20% -53.2%
10% ← realistic here -53.7% 20% -57.7%
15% -58.2% 20% -61.8%
20% -62.3% 20% -65.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$56 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $147 −$140 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $95 −$61 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$19 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records