Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0A 0x0a6f…962a crypto 312 markets active 2h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,616 (-3%) realized −$2,780 · open +$164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate82%251W / 54L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,795now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$16
14 days+$123
30 days−$1,503
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,475
politics 0% −$57
other 0% −$111
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +5.5% -4.5% 89% 37% -5.1%
≤30d 53 -1.4% -10.8% 87% 25% -30.2%
≤90d 167 +0.9% -8.7% 89% 21% -11.6%
all 305 -1.4% -10.8% 82% 19% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 19% -12.0%
10% -19.3% 5% -20.4%
15% -27.1% 4% -28.1%
20% -34.2% 2% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$159 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$2,795
Realized−$2,780
Unrealized+$164
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses251 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)305 / 312
History coverage371d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $930 $994 +$64 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $940 $992 +$52 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? No 89¢ 96¢ $697 $746 +$49 (+7%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? No 82¢ 88¢ $16 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Yes 92¢ 82¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 17? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? Jun 16 $26 +$4 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 16? Jun 16 $26 +$4 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $25 −$7 -26%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$4 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$16 -62%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $24 +$6 +24%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 11? Jun 12 $23 +$7 +30%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +8%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $26 −$23 -88%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$2 +8%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 8? Jun 08 $350 +$25 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 08 $630 +$67 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $357 +$17 +5%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 7? Jun 08 $18 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 06 $26 +$4 +14%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 6? Jun 06 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $25 +$5 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $0 $0 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 3? Jun 03 $24 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $38 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $22 +$3 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? Jun 02 $886 −$880 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 01 $915 −$910 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? May 25 $24 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 26? May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $45 +$4 +9%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 25? May 25 $694 +$49 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $356 +$15 +4%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 24? May 24 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 24? May 24 $356 +$19 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $356 +$17 +5%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 23? May 24 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 23? May 23 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 23? May 23 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $44 +$6 +14%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 19? May 19 $356 +$18 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $17 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $340 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $340 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $22 3h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 4h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $1 19h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $4 19h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $3 19h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $5 19h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 16? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $10 22h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $4 23h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 23h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 23h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $10 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $10 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 64¢ $19 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $9 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $9 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 33¢ $9 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $8 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,794.61 · official $2,794.59 (match) · 1156 history records