Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a6e…1f7f crypto 1179 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$800 (-8%) realized −$801 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%622W / 983L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day105.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,165
7 days−$2,165
14 days−$2,223
30 days−$2,375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$255
other 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 501 -60.4% -64.1% 12% 8% -60.2%
≤30d 1573 -20.1% -27.7% 39% 36% -26.0%
≤90d 1605 -20.0% -27.6% 39% 36% -25.9%
all 1605 -20.0% -27.6% 39% 36% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 36% -25.9%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 30% -33.0%
15% -40.9% 21% -39.5%
20% -46.7% 10% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$801
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses622 / 983
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1605 / 1179
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day105.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 0¢ 44¢ $0 $13 +$13 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $15 $2 −$12 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -500%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$5 -225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$8 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$7 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$3 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -333%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $24 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $17 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $24 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.55 · official $20.35 · 3500 history records