Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0A 0x0a6b…2573 sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$557 (+30%) realized +$432 · open +$125
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%21W / 23L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$228
14 days+$395
30 days+$395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$5
sports 46% +$218
politics 7% +$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +21.9% +10.3% 47% 47% +9.2%
≤30d 44 +29.8% +17.5% 48% 45% +13.3%
≤90d 44 +29.8% +17.5% 48% 45% +13.3%
all 44 +29.8% +17.5% 48% 45% +13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.5% 45% +13.3%
10% +6.2% 45% +2.5%
15% -4.0% 43% -7.4%
20% -13.4% 43% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$23 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized+$432
Unrealized+$125
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses21 / 23
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)44 / 51
History coverage41d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 90¢ $100 $229 +$129 (+129%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $140 $142 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $26 $21 −$5 (-20%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $82 −$62 -75%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $41 +$59 +146%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $65 −$40 -61%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 +$74 +70%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $66 +$34 +52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $29 −$23 -80%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$41 +80%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $54 +$31 +59%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $39 +$91 +233%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 +$42 +226%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 +$38 +219%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$58 -57%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $28 −$23 -82%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$70 +238%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 +$49 +238%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 −$37 -64%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $19 +$31 +165%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $64 +$36 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$11 -43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +158%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $26 −$26 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $28 +$22 +79%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $37 +$13 +35%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $8 −$5 -66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $79 +$70 +89%
NBA Finals: Game 4 Opening Tip Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $11 +$9 +78%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $12 +$8 +62%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 09 $23 +$27 +117%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $89 −$81 -91%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $128 −$5 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $21 +$172 +828%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $142 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $82 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 12¢ $12 11h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $41 11h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 25¢ $26 12h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 14¢ $14 12h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 39¢ $40 14h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 19h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $105 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 35¢ $31 27h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $66 35h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 12¢ $6 35h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 57¢ $8 37h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 57¢ $21 37h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 39h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 41h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $27 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $51 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 62¢ $54 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 27¢ $14 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $18 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $56 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $39 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $44 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 10¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 45¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.95 · official $402.95 (match) · 102 history records