Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a69…09dc crypto 111 markets active 3h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate63%70W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -7.9% -16.7% 63% 37% -14.3%
≤30d 107 -5.1% -14.1% 64% 39% -12.7%
≤90d 111 -5.1% -14.2% 63% 38% -12.0%
all 111 -5.1% -14.2% 63% 38% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 38% -12.0%
10% -22.4% 14% -20.5%
15% -29.9% 3% -28.1%
20% -36.7% 1% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses70 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage51d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 353 history records