Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:24:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a68…edd3 weather 342 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$128 (+2%) realized +$144 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%100W / 224L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$215
7 days+$212
14 days+$354
30 days+$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% +$82
other 8% +$22
sports 2% +$50
crypto 2% +$4
world 1% +$7
politics 0% +$8
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +21.4% +9.8% 52% 42% -31.3%
≤30d 189 +2.3% -7.5% 36% 32% -18.6%
≤90d 324 -7.7% -16.5% 31% 29% -20.5%
all 324 -7.7% -16.5% 31% 29% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 29% -20.5%
10% -24.5% 26% -28.1%
15% -31.8% 22% -35.1%
20% -38.4% 19% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$14 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$144
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses100 / 224
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)324 / 342
History coverage82d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $89 $109 +$20 (+23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $28 $23 −$5 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 30? No 75¢ 81¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-70%)
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+117%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 29? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $51 −$24 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? Jun 29 $118 +$22 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 29? Jun 29 $42 −$41 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 29? Jun 29 $60 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 29? Jun 29 $208 −$114 -55%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 29? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29? Jun 29 $94 +$54 +57%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 28? Jun 29 $131 +$26 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $101 −$73 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 29? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28? Jun 28 $75 +$18 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 28? Jun 28 $10 +$20 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $38 +$16 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? Jun 27 $158 −$155 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $125 −$115 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $310 +$112 +36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $62 +$36 +59%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $141 −$141 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $7 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $23 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $83 −$83 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $75 +$25 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $88 +$12 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 25? Jun 26 $85 +$15 +18%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 25 $22 −$17 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $79 +$20 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $68 +$31 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 24? Jun 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 24? Jun 25 $1 +$998 +95047%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $34 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? Jun 24 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 +$7 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $29 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $160 −$153 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $35 −$33 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 23 $11 +$18 +160%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $31 +$64 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23? Jun 23 $38 +$22 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $54 +$12 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 30? BUY No 75¢ $8 23m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $27 1h
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $71 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY 3¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 29? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 29? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 29? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 29? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY 3¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? SELL Yes 99¢ $133 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 29? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 29? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 29? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 29? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 29? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.12 · official $221.23 (match) · 1139 history records