Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0A 0x0a67…b555 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$92 (+6%) realized +$87 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$42
other 6% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.7% -5.3% 88% 56% -5.6%
≤30d 16 +4.7% -5.3% 88% 56% -5.6%
≤90d 16 +4.7% -5.3% 88% 56% -5.6%
all 16 +4.7% -5.3% 88% 56% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 56% -5.6%
10% -14.3% 38% -14.6%
15% -22.6% 12% -22.8%
20% -30.2% 0% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$94 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $165 $170 +$5 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $160 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $98 +$33 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $126 +$47 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $95 +$30 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $91 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $62 +$29 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $59 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $48 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $154 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $150 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $128 +$22 +17%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$28 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.61 · official $169.61 (match) · 34 history records