Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:19:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0A 0x0a62…91c4 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$32 (+24%) realized +$4 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$66
sports 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +58.9% +43.7% 100% 100% +29.6%
≤30d 5 +58.9% +43.7% 100% 100% +29.6%
≤90d 5 +58.9% +43.7% 100% 100% +29.6%
all 5 +58.9% +43.7% 100% 100% +29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.7% 100% +29.6%
10% +30.0% 80% +17.2%
15% +17.4% 80% +5.9%
20% +5.9% 60% -4.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 40¢ 72¢ $36 $64 +$28 (+79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $42 +$9 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $22 +$11 +49%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $18 +$10 +55%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $9 +$9 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $37 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL 99¢ $33 23h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 65¢ $22 33h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 86¢ $18 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 43¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.37 · official $64.37 (match) · 11 history records