Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a61…2727 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,856 (-5%) realized −$3,954 · open +$98
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate81%17W / 4L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,398per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$10,874now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 149d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$222
crypto 27% −$343
sports 16% +$3,638
world 5% −$3,775
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +39.7% +26.4% 60% 40% -9.0%
≤30d 10 +20.6% +9.1% 80% 20% -9.0%
≤90d 10 +20.6% +9.1% 80% 20% -9.0%
all 21 +6.1% -4.0% 81% 14% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 14% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 10% -18.6%
15% -21.6% 10% -26.5%
20% -29.3% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$5,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$361 vs −$1,625 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$10,874
Realized−$3,954
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses17 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage149d
Avg bet$3,398
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 54¢ $5,707 $5,941 +$233 (+4%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 60¢ 58¢ $5,068 $4,933 −$135 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06- Jun 28 $1,177 +$3,825 +325%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2,899 +$2,122 +73%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $2,095 −$2,059 -98%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $3,802 −$3,775 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $981 +$19 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,977 +$23 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $961 +$39 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9,971 +$29 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9,999 +$13 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Mar 29 $611 −$611 -100%
Pacers vs. Bucks Feb 07 $5,906 −$57 -1%
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-02-06? Feb 07 $1,175 +$14 +1%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-06? Feb 06 $175 +$24 +14%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-05? Feb 06 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-05? Feb 05 $294 +$5 +2%
KHL: Severstal Cherepovets vs. SKA St. Petersburg Feb 05 $18 $0 +0%
KHL: Lada Togliatti vs. Dinamo Minsk Feb 05 $200 $0 +0%
KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk Feb 04 $78 +$5 +6%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-03? Feb 04 $5,005 +$5 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 26-1? Jan 31 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $36 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $370 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $44 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $37 2h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $318 2h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $29 3h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $24 3h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $1 3h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $11 4h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $11 4h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Netherlands 59¢ $12 4h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 60¢ $328 4h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 60¢ $546 4h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $144 4h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $5 4h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $7 4h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $8 4h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $16 4h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $16 4h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $22 4h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $16 4h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $16 4h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $16 4h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $22 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,873.86 · official $10,873.86 (match) · 227 history records