Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a60…08ff sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate70%21W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$123
14 days+$123
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% +$213
politics 26% −$46
crypto 23% −$154
other 14% −$69
economics 5% +$44
tech 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +37.9% +24.8% 67% 67% +30.5%
≤30d 6 +37.9% +24.8% 67% 67% +30.5%
≤90d 8 +17.1% +6.0% 62% 50% +9.8%
all 30 +3.1% -6.7% 70% 53% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 53% -9.4%
10% -15.6% 47% -18.1%
15% -23.8% 30% -26.0%
20% -31.2% 27% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$48 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses21 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage615d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 36¢ 36¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $46 +$57 +124%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $47 +$53 +114%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $47 +$53 +114%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $57 +$43 +76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? May 23 $75 +$7 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Sep 04 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Sep 04 $92 +$8 +9%
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration? Jan 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024? Jan 02 $94 +$6 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 23 $48 +$32 +67%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 03 $44 −$44 -100%
Google forced to sell Chrome? Nov 27 $34 +$8 +25%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Nov 19 $42 +$14 +35%
Will Trump attend Paul vs. Tyson? Nov 18 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Nov 15 $45 +$9 +20%
ETHBTC above 0.035 on Nov 30? Nov 14 $45 +$1 +2%
2024 October hottest on record? Nov 09 $1 +$1 +100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? Nov 09 $50 +$12 +25%
Will ETH or SOL reach all-time high first? Nov 08 $41 +$9 +22%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election? Nov 05 $100 +$32 +32%
Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during North Carolina rally o Nov 04 $54 +$46 +85%
Tesla sells bitcoin in October? Nov 02 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Trump say "New York" 30 or more times during New York rally on Oc Oct 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October? Oct 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Vote" 15 or more times during Georgia rally on October Oct 24 $50 +$22 +45%
Will Trump say "beach" during North Carolina rally October 22? Oct 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $46 1h
Belgium vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
England vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $41 1h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $41 1h
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $56 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $47 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $47 2d
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $46 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $43 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $57 3d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $52 36d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $25 36d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $5 36d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY No 75¢ $75 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY No 45¢ $45 37d
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 513d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? BUY Yes 58¢ $57 552d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 553d
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 553d
Google forced to sell Chrome? SELL No 84¢ $40 578d
Google forced to sell Chrome? SELL No 84¢ $1 578d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? BUY Yes 22¢ $44 579d
Google forced to sell Chrome? BUY No 67¢ $34 584d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? SELL Yes 70¢ $56 586d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY Yes 52¢ $42 590d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? SELL Yes 36¢ $54 591d
Will Trump attend Paul vs. Tyson? BUY No 80¢ $40 591d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? BUY Yes 60¢ $48 591d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.87 · official $276.87 (match) · 74 history records