Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a5a…5a61 weather 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate90%81W / 9L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$2
other 26% −$2
sports 22% −$3
economics 7% −$1
weather 5% +$1
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 74 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 90 -0.6% -10.0% 90% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses81 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage157d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $104 $104 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 26? Jun 23 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on May 14? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 61°F or below on May 14? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on May 14? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 20? May 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C or higher on April 20? May 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 20? May 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 20? May 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 20? May 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on April 18? Apr 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on April 18? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 18? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 17? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 18? Apr 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 17? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 17? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 17? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 18? Apr 20 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 17? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 17? Apr 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 18? Apr 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 17? Apr 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 17? Apr 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on April 18? Apr 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 18? Apr 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 18? Apr 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 18? Apr 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or below on April 18? Apr 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 17? Apr 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 17 Apr 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 18? Apr 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on April 8? Apr 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 38°C or higher on Apri Apr 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 8? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $145 Week of April 6 2026? Apr 17 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C or below on April 8? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or below on April 8? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 8? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on April 8? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on April 8? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C or below on April 8? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on April 8? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $150? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 26°C or below on April 8? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of April 6 above $270? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 9? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 9? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 5°C or below on April 8? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or below on April 8? Apr 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of April 6 above $265? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $104 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 31d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $33 41d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $38 41d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 61°F or below on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $33 41d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C or higher on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $18 63d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $17 63d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $25 63d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $23 63d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $21 63d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $6 67d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $9 67d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 67d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 67d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $18 67d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $18 67d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 67d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $12 67d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 67d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 67d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $19 67d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $19 67d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or below on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $19 67d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $17 67d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 17 BUY No 100¢ $20 67d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 67d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 67d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 67d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 18? BUY No 99¢ $11 67d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.05 · official $104.05 (match) · 182 history records