Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0A
0x0a59…8e5c
weather · 1533 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$2,610 +54%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,630 · open −$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$253
Realized+$2,630
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses197 / 1196
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1393 / 1533
History coverage53d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day62.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 35 History 1393 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$755
7 days−$298
14 days+$428
30 days+$1,215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $50 $85 +$35 (+70%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 3¢ 24¢ $3 $29 +$26 (+774%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 7¢ 77¢ $2 $21 +$20 (+1080%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Yes 3¢ 25¢ $2 $21 +$19 (+741%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $25 $20 −$4 (-17%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-70%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 34¢ $3 $10 +$8 (+283%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Yes 28¢ 69¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+148%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $5 $9 +$3 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 36¢ 26¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 28¢ 10¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-62%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-57%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+116%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? No 13¢ 4¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-71%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 5¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during t Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Cubs vs. Brewers Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on December 18? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on December 22? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on March 6? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 6? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 5? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on April 11? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on April 20? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Kings Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on March 2? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on No Jun 13 $0 $0 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 20? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Astros vs. Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2025-10-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 19? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on April 17? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Linda" or "McMahon" during executive Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on Apri Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on No Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 4? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 11? Jun 13 $2 +$16 +1018%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Oc Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 27? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Jets vs. Flyers Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or higher on Apri Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on April 18? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on March 2? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December Jun 13 $1 −$5 -371%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 10? Jun 13 $0 +$10 +68042%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 11? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 23? Jun 13 $9 −$7 -85%
Brewers vs. Blue Jays Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 1PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
UK sanctions on Russia by October 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Jun 13 $4 −$3 -84%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on No Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 2PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or higher on January 3? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 21? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Royals vs. Angels Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% +$3,434
politics 3% +$2
other 2% −$4
world 1% +$55
crypto 0% +$32
sports 0% −$2
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 44m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 56m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 327 -28.5% -35.3% 9% 8% -35.2%
≤30d 602 +32.2% +19.6% 17% 17% +29.0%
≤90d 1393 +20.4% +8.9% 14% 13% +23.2%
all 1393 +20.4% +8.9% 14% 13% +23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover62.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.9% 13% +23.2%
10% ← realistic here -1.5% 13% +11.4%
15% -11.0% 13% +0.6%
20% -19.8% 13% -9.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.42 · official $253.43 (match) · 3500 history records