Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:28:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0A 0x0a59…770c sports 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25,834 (-6%) realized −$25,835 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate68%93W / 44L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,167per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$281
7 days+$245
14 days+$245
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$25,740
other 3% +$724
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.2% -5.8% 84% 47% -4.2%
≤30d 19 +4.2% -5.8% 84% 47% -4.2%
≤90d 22 -2.7% -11.9% 77% 41% -10.8%
all 137 -4.0% -13.1% 68% 39% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 39% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 19% -20.8%
15% -29.0% 7% -28.5%
20% -36.0% 2% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$3,697) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$338 vs −$1,283 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$583
Realized−$25,835
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses93 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage403d
Avg bet$3,167
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Under 89¢ 88¢ $482 $473 −$9 (-2%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Türkiye 76¢ 84¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $101 −$40 -39%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $100 +$17 +17%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $445 +$90 +20%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $483 +$63 +13%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $169 +$17 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $99 +$19 +19%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $101 −$50 -49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $201 +$37 +19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $253 +$6 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $201 +$48 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $480 +$30 +6%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $233 +$43 +18%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 23 $6 +$1 +24%
Spread: England (-4.5) Jun 23 $301 +$26 +9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $355 +$31 +9%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $69 +$24 +35%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $172 +$7 +4%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $200 −$131 -66%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $169 +$7 +4%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $788 −$360 -46%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $4,334 +$357 +8%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 19 $385 −$382 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Dec 17 $1,153 −$1,129 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Nov 29 $5,135 −$4,002 -78%
Rockets vs. Warriors Nov 27 $1,443 +$91 +6%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Nov 27 $1,979 +$251 +13%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Nov 27 $200 +$42 +21%
Pacers vs. Raptors Nov 27 $3,153 +$274 +9%
Knicks vs. Hornets Nov 27 $1,368 +$462 +34%
Pistons vs. Celtics Nov 27 $1,889 −$252 -13%
Clippers vs. Lakers Nov 26 $6,475 +$624 +10%
Hawks vs. Wizards Nov 26 $8,742 −$8,742 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Kings Nov 25 $2,472 −$117 -5%
Jazz vs. Warriors Nov 25 $3,501 +$234 +7%
Rockets vs. Suns Nov 25 $3,360 −$227 -7%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Nov 25 $10,780 +$750 +7%
Lakers vs. Jazz Nov 24 $3,892 +$426 +11%
Spurs vs. Suns Nov 24 $5,364 +$28 +0%
Kings vs. Nuggets Nov 23 $260 −$260 -100%
Wizards vs. Bulls Nov 23 $176 +$84 +48%
Hawks vs. Pelicans Nov 23 $124 +$52 +42%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 22 $665 −$541 -81%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $532 +$132 +25%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $476 +$56 +12%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Nov 22 $2,604 −$1,011 -39%
Nuggets vs. Rockets Nov 22 $4,287 +$44 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Suns Nov 22 $500 −$190 -38%
76ers vs. Bucks Nov 21 $3,697 −$259 -7%
Hawks vs. Spurs Nov 21 $2,363 +$31 +1%
Bulls vs. Trail Blazers Nov 20 $300 +$37 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 89¢ $483 29m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 49¢ $61 36m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 76¢ $101 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 54¢ $71 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 75¢ $101 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 81¢ $43 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 83¢ $302 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $100 5h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $546 5h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $297 17h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $186 17h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $186 24h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $118 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $119 24h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $51 24h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 SELL Over 43¢ $51 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $99 25h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $238 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $259 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $253 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 40h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $406 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $78 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 47h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $275 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $582.51 · official $582.51 (match) · 541 history records