Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:20:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0A 0x0a59…ba82 sports 735 markets active 3h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21,494 (-11%) realized −$21,367 · open −$127
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate61%450W / 284L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$678est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$8
14 days−$592
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$7,229
other 38% −$15,000
world 0% −$69
crypto 0% −$29
politics 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.7% -10.1% 71% 50% -9.3%
≤30d 236 -3.5% -12.7% 70% 39% -9.5%
≤90d 537 -8.3% -17.1% 63% 45% -17.9%
all 734 -8.0% -16.8% 61% 46% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 46% -19.0%
10% -24.7% 34% -26.8%
15% -32.0% 23% -33.9%
20% -38.7% 17% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$170 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized−$21,367
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses450 / 284
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$678
Open positions1
Markets (closed)734 / 735
History coverage241d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 734 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 60¢ $435 $308 −$127 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $376 +$63 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $331 +$32 +10%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $315 +$19 +6%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $289 +$26 +9%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $246 +$42 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $220 +$26 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $191 +$27 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $126 +$66 +52%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $305 −$298 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $110 +$98 +89%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $393 −$186 -47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$114 +112%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$98 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $230 −$227 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $127 −$125 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $564 −$6 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $657 −$92 -14%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $127 +$26 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $582 +$49 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $546 +$34 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $443 +$101 +23%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $822 −$374 -46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $781 +$39 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $712 +$68 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $766 −$51 -7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $721 +$45 +6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $622 +$99 +16%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $532 +$90 +17%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $496 +$36 +7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $471 +$23 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,205 −$732 -61%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,074 +$130 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,012 +$63 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $932 +$78 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,854 −$958 -52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,802 +$72 +4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 13 $1,807 +$7 +0%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $1,003 +$51 +5%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $1,705 +$31 +2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $1,603 +$47 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,505 +$163 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $473 +$46 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $451 +$28 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $503 −$39 -8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $356 +$1 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,354 +$128 +10%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $1,203 +$61 +5%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $1,205 +$50 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $437 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $439 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $376 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $331 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $334 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $315 39h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $289 47h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $246 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $247 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $220 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $218 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $191 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $126 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $305 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $207 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $110 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $207 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $393 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $102 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $300 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $104 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $127 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $127 7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $559 7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $564 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 80¢ $565 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $657 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.12 · official $318.48 · 1511 history records