Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:15:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a58…4f12 crypto 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate63%64W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$33
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -39.0% -44.8% 33% 0% -29.1%
≤30d 40 -26.7% -33.7% 30% 28% -22.2%
≤90d 102 -2.5% -11.8% 63% 25% -12.5%
all 102 -2.5% -11.8% 63% 25% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 25% -12.5%
10% -20.2% 16% -20.9%
15% -27.9% 14% -28.5%
20% -35.0% 11% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses64 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage70d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 03 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 03 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 03 $35 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 01 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 31 $11 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 31 $1 +$7 +627%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 31 $21 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 31 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $23 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 31 $34 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 30 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 29 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 29 $5 +$13 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 28 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 28 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 03 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 03 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 03 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 03 $8 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 03 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 03 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 03 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 03 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 03 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 03 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $33 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $37 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $31 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $6 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $6 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $36 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $34 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $8 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 282 history records