Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

0A 0x0a56…50c2 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$44 (-18%) realized −$34 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +150% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +92% what you keep after slip

Net edge+92%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate12%1W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day49.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)+126.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+149.8%	+126.0%	12%	12%	-43.9%
≤30d	8	+149.8%	+126.0%	12%	12%	-43.9%
≤90d	8	+149.8%	+126.0%	12%	12%	-43.9%
all	8	+149.8%	+126.0%	12%	12%	-43.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover49.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+126.0%	12%	-43.9%
10% ← realistic here	+104.4%	12%	-49.3%
15%	+84.6%	12%	-54.2%
20%	+66.5%	12%	-58.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +150% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$95 vs −$22 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.61 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$73

Realized−$34

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)12%

Wins / losses1 / 7

Open positions7

Markets (closed)8 / 15

History coverage1d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day49.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$36	$34	−$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$14	$10	−$4 (-29%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal?	Yes	7¢	8¢	$7	$8	+$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$6	$6	+$0 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$6	$6	+$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$8	$5	−$3 (-34%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq?	Yes	6¢	4¢	$6	$4	−$2 (-25%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	Jun 22	$5	+$95	+1898%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$13	−$13	-100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria?	Jun 22	$36	−$35	-97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$6	−$6	-100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria?	Jun 22	$47	−$46	-98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria?	Jun 22	$42	−$41	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	BUY Yes	8¢	$8	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$7	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	SELL Yes	93¢	$1	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$13	1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	BUY Yes	8¢	$29	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	5¢	$4	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal?	BUY Yes	2¢	$6	2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq?	BUY Yes	6¢	$6	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria?	BUY Yes	3¢	$9	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria?	BUY Yes	3¢	$6	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria?	BUY Yes	3¢	$7	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria?	BUY Yes	3¢	$14	2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$6	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.88 · official $72.63 (match) · 50 history records