Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0A 0x0a54…7c49 sports 155 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$14,248 (+22%) realized +$14,248 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%65W / 90L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$422per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$860est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,772
7 days−$5,420
14 days−$4,861
30 days+$5,243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$17,240
other 25% −$3,692
crypto 6% −$958
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +14.9% +4.0% 23% 17% -29.0%
≤30d 113 +26.6% +14.6% 42% 39% +1.4%
≤90d 154 +22.9% +11.2% 42% 40% +11.0%
all 155 +22.2% +10.5% 42% 39% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 39% +10.9%
10% -0.0% 39% +0.3%
15% -9.7% 39% -9.4%
20% -18.6% 38% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$501 vs −$222 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14,248
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses65 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$860
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 155
History coverage137d
Avg bet$422
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $93 −$40 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$44 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -95%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$121 +237%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5,279 −$390 -7%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,454 −$336 -8%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5,074 +$4,690 +92%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $475 −$462 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $498 −$25 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,185 −$1,162 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $466 −$456 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $11 +$41 +363%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3,986 −$3,928 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $994 −$971 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1,407 −$1,380 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $994 −$588 -59%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $273 −$267 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $271 +$1 +0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $998 −$983 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $149 −$145 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $814 −$305 -38%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $57 −$55 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,493 +$1,409 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $315 −$304 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $445 +$863 +194%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $996 +$1,619 +162%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $403 −$24 -6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 02 $767 −$37 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $601 −$274 -46%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 02 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 02 $72 +$86 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 02 $497 +$453 +91%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $326 −$321 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $110 +$109 +99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $1,352 +$1,752 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 01 $287 −$287 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $113 −$106 -93%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $119 −$116 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $45 −$31 -70%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $299 +$260 +87%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $2,645 +$2,076 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 31 $22 +$46 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 31 $29 +$56 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $42 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $46 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $51 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $30 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $9 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $28 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $3,706 9h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $97 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $87 10h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $9,764 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $3,913 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $3,909 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $4,367 12h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5,074 12h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $74 13h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $401 13h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $473 13h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $498 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $5 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $1,180 32h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,183 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 26¢ $466 33h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,366 34h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $51 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.38 · official $0.47 (match) · 353 history records