Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

0A 0x0a53…8b93 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$20 (-5%) realized −$22 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%11W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day45.0pace

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)-10.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-1.3%	-10.7%	58%	58%	-22.3%
≤30d	19	-1.3%	-10.7%	58%	58%	-22.3%
≤90d	19	-1.3%	-10.7%	58%	58%	-22.3%
all	19	-1.3%	-10.7%	58%	58%	-22.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover45.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-10.7%	58%	-22.3%
10% ← realistic here	-19.2%	53%	-29.7%
15%	-27.0%	37%	-36.5%
20%	-34.2%	26%	-42.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 35% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -13% → late +9% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.58 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$32

Realized−$22

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses11 / 8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day45.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	69¢	74¢	$30	$32	+$2 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 25	$25	+$3	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 25	$36	+$8	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 25	$35	−$7	-19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 25	$25	+$7	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 25	$36	+$8	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$4	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 25	$15	+$9	+59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$2	-44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 25	$15	+$6	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$2	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$4	+86%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals	Jun 25	$5	$0	-9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 25	$93	−$85	-91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$17	+65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$4	+86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$26	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$5	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$28	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$25	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$5	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$25	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	SELL Down	29¢	$2	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$5	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$5	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	SELL Up	8¢	$1	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$25	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$5	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$25	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$25	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$5	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$9	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	SELL Up	48¢	$5	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$5	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$5	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$5	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$5	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$5	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	SELL Up	12¢	$3	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Up	19¢	$5	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$5	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$5	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$5	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.82 · official $21.43 · 57 history records