Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:09:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a53…7a6f world 363 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,333 (+7%) realized +$11,178 · open +$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%188W / 165L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$5,128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,515
7 days+$6,081
14 days+$7,052
30 days+$7,056
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$6,828
politics 24% +$1,947
other 7% +$409
finance 2% +$206
culture 1% +$122
sports 1% +$347
crypto 0% +$279
economics 0% +$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +39.9% +26.6% 58% 50% +16.2%
≤30d 102 +16.6% +5.5% 55% 44% +5.2%
≤90d 218 +12.5% +1.8% 55% 43% -1.4%
all 353 +7.8% -2.5% 53% 41% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 41% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 30% -12.8%
15% -20.3% 23% -21.2%
20% -28.1% 18% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$93 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$5,128
Realized+$11,178
Unrealized+$155
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses188 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions9
Markets (closed)353 / 363
History coverage161d ⚠
Avg bet$436
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 40¢ 46¢ $1,084 $1,261 +$177 (+16%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 86¢ 85¢ $983 $977 −$6 (-1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $968 $962 −$6 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $800 $791 −$9 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $496 $539 +$43 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $310 $317 +$7 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 68¢ $124 $137 +$13 (+10%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $108 $87 −$21 (-19%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $100 $56 −$44 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $414 +$186 +45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $1,472 −$297 -20%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $274 −$187 -68%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $394 −$345 -87%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo Jun 17 $39 −$17 -44%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $248 −$40 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $4,788 +$3,379 +71%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 17 $303 −$163 -54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $66 +$34 +52%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $611 −$42 -7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $81 −$31 -38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $21 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $56 +$37 +67%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $378 −$48 -13%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $30 +$202 +674%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $42 +$60 +143%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $104 +$56 +54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $44 +$63 +143%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $251 +$284 +113%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2,105 +$2,377 +113%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $43 +$37 +85%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $44 +$67 +152%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $208 +$23 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $473 +$40 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $394 +$84 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 +$41 +138%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 13 $131 +$54 +42%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $146 +$21 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $62 −$3 -5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $258 −$118 -46%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$23 -44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $305 +$164 +54%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $388 +$153 +40%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 12 $90 −$37 -41%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $980 −$27 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $937 −$104 -11%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $4,909 +$120 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $74 +$106 +143%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $123 +$8 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $252 −$16 -6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $96 −$42 -44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $1,038 +$333 +32%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $46 −$15 -32%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $144 +$56 +39%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $70 +$42 +60%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $24 −$22 -93%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $119 +$139 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $175 18m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $22 50m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $28 56m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $103 59m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $20 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $15 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $318 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $1,000 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $8 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $213 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $310 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $968 2h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 2h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $611 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $119 2h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 24¢ $86 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 2h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo SELL Yes 22¢ $22 2h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 2h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $29 3h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 3h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $113 3h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $49 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 52¢ $208 4h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $58 4h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $52 4h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $39 4h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $88 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,127.81 · official $5,127.81 (match) · 3500 history records