trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 82¢ | 96¢ | $9 | $10 | +$1 (+16%) |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 58¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 10¢ | $3 | $1 | −$2 (-52%) |
| Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | Over | 44¢ | 44¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 | Over | 54¢ | 24¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-56%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | +14% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | Apr 06 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | Apr 06 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Apr 02 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Apr 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? | Mar 27 | $3 | −$2 | -52% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ma | Mar 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 22? | Mar 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 22? | Mar 22 | $1 | −$1 | -75% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 20? | Mar 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 20? | Mar 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 19? | Mar 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 19? | Mar 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 19? | Mar 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on March 19? | Mar 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 19? | Mar 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 19? | Mar 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 19? | Mar 20 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 19? | Mar 20 | $2 | $0 | -27% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 19? | Mar 19 | $1 | +$2 | +156% |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on March 19? | Mar 19 | $2 | +$2 | +106% |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on March 19? | Mar 19 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +14.1% | +3.2% | 100% | 100% | +3.2% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +14.1% | +3.2% | 100% | 100% | +3.2% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -58.2% | -62.1% | 14% | 14% | -49.4% |
| all | 22 | -58.2% | -62.1% | 14% | 14% | -49.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -62.1% | 14% | -49.4% |
| 10% | -65.8% | 9% | -54.2% |
| 15% | -69.1% | 9% | -58.6% |
| 20% | -72.1% | 9% | -62.7% |