Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0A 0x0a4c…447d other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +111% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +76% what you keep after slip
Net edge+76%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$88
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+91.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +111.4% +91.2% 100% 50% +18.1%
≤30d 4 +111.4% +91.2% 100% 50% +18.1%
≤90d 4 +111.4% +91.2% 100% 50% +18.1%
all 4 +111.4% +91.2% 100% 50% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +91.2% 50% +18.1%
10% +72.9% 50% +6.8%
15% +56.2% 50% -3.5%
20% +40.9% 50% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +111% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $121 +$63 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $155 +$13 +9%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$12 +383%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $185 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $169 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 9¢ $15 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $155 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records