Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a4b…1f22 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$99
other 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.6% -23.7% 27% 13% -13.5%
≤30d 15 -15.6% -23.7% 27% 13% -13.5%
≤90d 15 -15.6% -23.7% 27% 13% -13.5%
all 15 -15.6% -23.7% 27% 13% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 13% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 7% -21.8%
15% -37.6% 0% -29.3%
20% -43.8% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$18 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $383 −$69 -18%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -56%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $12 −$1 -11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $673 −$26 -4%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$9 -46%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $522 +$36 +7%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $150 −$57 -38%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $208 +$56 +27%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $26 +$3 +11%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $343 −$30 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 64¢ $1 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 64¢ $64 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 62¢ $64 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 14¢ $25 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 38¢ $3 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 38¢ $36 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 38¢ $31 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire SELL Seattle Storm 66¢ $7 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 63¢ $7 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 41¢ $58 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 50¢ $71 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 43¢ $82 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 38¢ $74 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 36¢ $57 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 43¢ $71 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 41¢ $19 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 52¢ $15 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 52¢ $9 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 29h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 27¢ $4 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 2d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 73¢ $3 2d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 2d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 80¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records