Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0A 0x0a4a…14d2 other 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 1070d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,248 (-5%) realized −$2,248 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%120W / 101L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$418
7 days−$333
14 days−$333
30 days−$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$1,907
sports 22% −$765
culture 4% +$513
economics 3% +$189
politics 3% −$174
crypto 3% −$363
world 2% +$64
tech 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -54.4% -58.7% 33% 33% -47.5%
≤30d 3 -54.4% -58.7% 33% 33% -47.5%
≤90d 35 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 46% -18.7%
all 221 -7.6% -16.4% 54% 42% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 42% -14.9%
10% -24.4% 32% -23.0%
15% -31.7% 23% -30.5%
20% -38.4% 18% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$92 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1070d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,248
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses120 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)221 / 222
History coverage1070d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 221 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $50 −$43 -86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $383 −$375 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $368 +$85 +23%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 May 10 $542 −$524 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,330 +$112 +8%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $101 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 10 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 10 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 10 $5 +$4 +69%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $518 +$58 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 09 $100 +$4 +4%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 09 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 07 $718 −$221 -31%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $241 −$2 -1%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs Oman May 05 $124 +$99 +80%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,311 −$1,188 -91%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,815 +$468 +26%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $470 +$373 +79%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $370 +$101 +27%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $744 +$188 +25%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 02 $143 +$9 +6%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $51 +$31 +61%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Apr 29 $285 −$285 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17? Apr 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $31 +$12 +40%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $197 +$156 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 20 $25 +$20 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $154 +$69 +45%
T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1) Feb 17 $5 +$2 +41%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 12 $13 +$14 +113%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 04 $10 −$3 -28%
Liverpool FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? Dec 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" at the Congressional Ball on December 1 Dec 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Election" or "November 5th" at the Congressional Ball Dec 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "250" or "Anniversary" at the Congressional Ball on Dec Dec 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brian Armstrong say "Base Token" at the Coinbase product showcase Dec 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times at the Congressional Ball on December Dec 23 $15 −$15 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to Score Dec 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Dec 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $7 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $50 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $383 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $71 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $453 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $368 3d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $141 32d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 34d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 35d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $18 35d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $125 35d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $405 35d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 89¢ $518 35d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 89¢ $522 35d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 78¢ $127 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 87¢ $6 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 80¢ $410 35d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 77¢ $403 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 76¢ $507 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 59¢ $405 35d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes $9 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $101 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $7 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $9 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 629 history records