Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a49…51b4 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$2
other 37% −$3
sports 8% $0
politics 5% $0
tech 5% +$1
finance 3% +$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 30% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 12 -0.5% -9.9% 42% 0% -10.0%
all 31 -6.0% -15.0% 45% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 3% -10.3%
10% -23.1% 3% -18.9%
15% -30.5% 3% -26.7%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage471d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $17 +$1 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $28 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $30 −$3 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $60 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $29 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 27 $11 $0 +4%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 -3%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $11 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 24 $1 $0 +42%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $1 $0 -24%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $16 $0 +0%
2025 February hottest on record? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $4 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $31 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $31 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $17 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $17 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $27 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $28 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $20 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $8 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $6 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $22 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $30 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $34 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $34 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 97¢ $30 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 29d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $18 31d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $12 31d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $29 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $20 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records