Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:45:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a44…65bc crypto 147 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (147 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate86%126W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day147.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (147 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -1.0% -10.4% 86% 69% -11.3%
≤30d 146 -1.0% -10.4% 86% 69% -11.3%
≤90d 146 -1.0% -10.4% 86% 69% -11.3%
all 146 -1.0% -10.4% 86% 69% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover147.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 69% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 3% -19.8%
15% -26.8% 0% -27.6%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses126 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day147.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 95¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.11 · official $2.89 (match) · 273 history records