Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a43…1050 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate60%25W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day93.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$43
tech 17% −$2
other 16% +$5
world 6% −$1
politics 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -8.0% -16.8% 60% 43% -16.4%
≤30d 42 -8.0% -16.8% 60% 43% -16.4%
≤90d 42 -8.0% -16.8% 60% 43% -16.4%
all 42 -8.0% -16.8% 60% 43% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 43% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 36% -24.4%
15% -32.0% 21% -31.7%
20% -38.7% 14% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$412
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses25 / 17
Open positions13
Markets (closed)42 / 55
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day93.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 67¢ 64¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 75¢ 84¢ $38 $42 +$4 (+11%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 68¢ 72¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+7%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 54¢ 50¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-6%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 84¢ 81¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 89¢ 89¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? No 94¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 84¢ 94¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+12%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 80¢ 92¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$13 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$16 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $9 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $30 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $27 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $8 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $31 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.33 · official $413.57 (match) · 136 history records