Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:46:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0A 0x0a3e…ab88 crypto 1668 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 181d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,511 (+0%) realized +$1,511 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate78%1298W / 368L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$53
14 days−$3
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,348
sports 0% −$86
other 0% +$95
world 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +12.6% +1.9% 19% 19% -1.6%
≤30d 231 -3.1% -12.4% 41% 15% -10.6%
≤90d 487 -1.5% -10.9% 64% 7% -9.4%
all 1666 -1.3% -10.7% 78% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 6% -9.2%
10% -19.2% 4% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 3% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$1,511
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1298 / 368
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1666 / 1668
History coverage181d ⚠
Avg bet$228
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1666 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $200 −$1 -0%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 +$15 +292%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -24%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 +$23 +454%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 +$37 +712%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +84%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +27%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +54%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 +$10 +188%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$31 +596%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$70 +1359%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 +$33 +650%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 45¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 10h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 14h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 52¢ $28 23h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.64 · official $9.64 (match) · 3500 history records