Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a3d…bacd sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,070 (-30%) realized −$1,173 · open +$103
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$639now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$191
14 days−$191
30 days−$933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$1,421
other 17% +$417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.9% -10.4% 43% 43% -13.3%
≤30d 12 -25.8% -32.8% 33% 33% -53.6%
≤90d 17 -17.4% -25.3% 29% 29% -40.3%
all 17 -17.4% -25.3% 29% 29% -40.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 29% -40.3%
10% -32.4% 29% -46.0%
15% -38.9% 29% -51.2%
20% -44.9% 29% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$258 vs −$200 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$639
Realized−$1,173
Unrealized+$103
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions9
Markets (closed)17 / 26
History coverage36d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Federico Cina Gianluca Cadenasso 11¢ 28¢ $70 $175 +$105 (+150%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Max Houkes Max Houkes 24¢ 26¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Edas Butvilas vs Moez Echargui Moez Echargui 31¢ 30¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding Federico Coria 27¢ 26¢ $85 $83 −$2 (-2%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Alexis Galarneau Facundo Acosta 29¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kwon Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 16¢ 14¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Pedro Martinez Pedro Martinez 17¢ 18¢ $43 $45 +$1 (+3%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno Gonzalo Bueno 20¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) Jun 17 $179 −$175 -98%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 17 $100 −$98 -98%
Set Handicap: Choinski (-1.5) vs Kasnikowski (+1.5) Jun 17 $122 −$120 -98%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $170 −$170 -100%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Set Handicap: Taverna (-1.5) vs Parisca (+1.5) Jun 16 $142 +$258 +182%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $97 +$115 +119%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 +$98 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $251 −$246 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $245 −$240 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 28 $262 −$256 -98%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Angers SCO: O/U 3.5 May 18 $317 −$317 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $274 −$274 -100%
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $126 −$126 -100%
Will PEC Zwolle win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $276 −$276 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $198 +$819 +414%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Pedro Martinez BUY Pedro Martinez 17¢ $44 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno BUY Gonzalo Bueno 20¢ $41 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Facundo Acosta 29¢ $51 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding BUY Federico Coria 27¢ $87 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 16¢ $51 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Edas Butvilas vs Moez Echargui BUY Moez Echargui 31¢ $98 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Federico Cina BUY Gianluca Cadenasso 11¢ $72 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Max Houkes BUY Max Houkes 24¢ $102 1h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) SELL Auger-Aliassime $0 4d
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) SELL Auger-Aliassime $0 4d
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) SELL Auger-Aliassime $0 4d
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) SELL Auger-Aliassime $0 4d
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) SELL Auger-Aliassime $0 4d
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) SELL Auger-Aliassime $0 4d
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Mees Rottgering 33¢ $100 4d
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) BUY Auger-Aliassime 39¢ $32 4d
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) BUY Auger-Aliassime 37¢ $46 4d
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) BUY Auger-Aliassime 46¢ $102 4d
Set Handicap: Choinski (-1.5) vs Kasnikowski (+1.5) BUY Choinski 38¢ $10 5d
Set Handicap: Choinski (-1.5) vs Kasnikowski (+1.5) BUY Choinski 38¢ $31 5d
Set Handicap: Choinski (-1.5) vs Kasnikowski (+1.5) BUY Choinski 37¢ $31 5d
Set Handicap: Choinski (-1.5) vs Kasnikowski (+1.5) BUY Choinski 37¢ $51 5d
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 25¢ $9 5d
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 51¢ $1 5d
Set Handicap: Taverna (-1.5) vs Parisca (+1.5) BUY Taverna 37¢ $2 5d
Set Handicap: Taverna (-1.5) vs Parisca (+1.5) BUY Taverna 37¢ $10 5d
Set Handicap: Taverna (-1.5) vs Parisca (+1.5) BUY Taverna 35¢ $20 5d
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 25¢ $56 5d
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 25¢ $105 5d
Set Handicap: Taverna (-1.5) vs Parisca (+1.5) BUY Taverna 35¢ $109 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $639.35 · official $639.37 (match) · 57 history records