Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:46:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a3c…0511 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,446 (+3%) realized +$1,551 · open −$105
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate74%26W / 9L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$1,157per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3,631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$1,546
politics 14% −$465
other 13% +$244
economics 4% +$53
tech 0% −$59
crypto 0% −$11
sports 0% −$10
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -46.1% -51.2% 25% 25% -46.0%
≤30d 7 -39.6% -45.4% 43% 14% -7.9%
≤90d 32 -7.9% -16.7% 75% 12% -6.9%
all 35 -9.8% -18.4% 74% 11% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 11% -6.9%
10% -26.2% 9% -15.8%
15% -33.4% 6% -23.9%
20% -39.9% 6% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,416) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$76 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$3,631
Realized+$1,551
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses26 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)35 / 45
History coverage117d
Avg bet$1,157
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 72¢ 64¢ $1,303 $1,157 −$146 (-11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 80¢ $591 $588 −$4 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $543 $583 +$40 (+7%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 87¢ 99¢ $440 $502 +$62 (+14%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $402 $406 +$4 (+1%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $209 $211 +$2 (+1%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? Yes 36¢ 26¢ $207 $148 −$59 (-29%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 79¢ 96¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+20%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Yes 35¢ 29¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-19%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $15 $11 −$4 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$6 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,137 +$34 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $812 +$42 +5%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FC Hermannstadt win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $10 +$2 +26%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $310 +$27 +9%
Will John Fleming finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Rep May 17 $429 +$4 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10,546 +$1,521 +14%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $320 +$17 +5%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $1,486 +$27 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $1,245 −$226 -18%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $79 +$2 +3%
Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5) Apr 27 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 19 $102 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $1,416 +$20 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 14 $3,122 −$417 -13%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $42 +$3 +8%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 12 $213 +$5 +2%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13? Apr 11 $23 $0 +1%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15? Apr 11 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026? Apr 11 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $14,053 +$100 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 05 $125 −$5 -4%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $5,791 +$184 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $985 +$16 +2%
Will Spain join the Board of Peace? Apr 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $2,959 +$31 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $334 +$8 +2%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $1,620 +$36 +2%
Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by Mar 03 $24 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $591 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $128 2d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $209 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up $2 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $274 6d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d BUY Yes 26¢ $9 7d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d BUY Yes 26¢ $11 7d
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $113 7d
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $89 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $245 19d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,168 19d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $130 20d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $111 20d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 20d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $290 20d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 20d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 20d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 20d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 20d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 20d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $270 20d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,631.04 · official $3,631.34 (match) · 441 history records