Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0A 0x0a3b…b309 politics 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,784 (-1%) realized −$1,784 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate16%20W / 106L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$994per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$11
14 days−$17
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$83
other 38% −$367
sports 13% −$1,325
culture 4% −$6
world 2% −$14
crypto 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 89 -13.4% -21.7% 9% 6% -11.7%
all 126 -6.2% -15.1% 16% 10% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 10% -10.8%
10% -23.2% 10% -19.4%
15% -30.7% 10% -27.1%
20% -37.5% 7% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,682) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$23 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,784
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage123d
Avg bet$994
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,739 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,938 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,083 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $879 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 04 $69 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 04 $96 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $110 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $110 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $109 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $156 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $216 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $275 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $254 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $259 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $271 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 06 $254 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $279 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $235 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 05 $877 −$877 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +118%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $4,283 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,493 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,771 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $4,076 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $3,618 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,728 −$2 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 09 $816 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $2,346 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $873 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $3,006 −$3 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $1,022 −$1 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $2,356 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $586 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $587 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $581 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $582 2d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $848 3d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $849 4d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $850 4d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $851 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $764 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $766 5d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $853 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $855 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $858 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $859 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $880 11d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $882 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $728 12d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $730 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $704 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $705 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $878 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $879 13d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $919 13d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $921 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $677 14d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $678 14d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $771 18d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $773 18d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 21d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 487 history records