Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a39…1897 world 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$46 (-2%) realized −$48 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%31W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$7
politics 19% −$6
other 18% +$1
crypto 4% −$2
finance 2% −$26
culture 2% $0
sports 1% −$4
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.4% -15.3% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 24 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 30 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 3% -10.1%
all 70 -6.2% -15.2% 44% 6% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 6% -11.1%
10% -23.3% 1% -19.6%
15% -30.7% 1% -27.4%
20% -37.5% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses31 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage532d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 48¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -32%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $62 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $320 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $66 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $3 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $13 $0 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $37 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $46 −$3 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $31 +$2 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $59 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $33 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $48 −$9 -18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $3 $0 -12%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 11 $229 −$1 -1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $229 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 07 $2 $0 +2%
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday? Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Marco Enríquez-Ominami win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 01 $75 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 01 $25 $0 -0%
Trump renames Persian Gulf to "Arabian Gulf" in May? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 24 $26 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 23 $8 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 22 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 20 $7 $0 -4%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 18 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 18 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $2 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $4 40h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $31 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $12 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $12 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $28 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $29 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $25 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $15 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $9 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $1 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.55 · official $30.55 (match) · 249 history records