trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | Over | 7¢ | 11¢ | $71 | $111 | +$40 (+57%) |
| Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5) | FC Andorra | 95¢ | 0¢ | $488 | $0 | −$488 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? | Jun 12 | $84 | +$5 | +6% |
| Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5) | May 24 | $488 | −$488 | -100% |
| Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | May 24 | $486 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? | May 22 | $42 | +$41 | +99% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 19 | $49 | −$9 | -18% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? | May 15 | $28 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? | May 13 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5) | Apr 23 | $377 | +$8 | +2% |
| Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | Apr 20 | $743 | −$7 | -1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +6.2% | -3.9% | 100% | 0% | -3.9% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 43% | 14% | -43.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -1.0% | -10.5% | 44% | 11% | -27.2% |
| all | 9 | -1.0% | -10.5% | 44% | 11% | -27.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.5% | 11% | -27.2% |
| 10% | -19.0% | 11% | -34.1% |
| 15% | -26.9% | 11% | -40.5% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 11% | -46.3% |