Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0A 0x0a37…26cf other 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+5%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%98W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$58
sports 24% −$25
crypto 11% −$6
weather 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +19.2% +7.9% 49% 49% +6.5%
≤30d 50 +5.8% -4.3% 46% 46% +3.6%
≤90d 159 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 43% -5.7%
all 180 -4.4% -13.5% 54% 46% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 46% -5.2%
10% -21.8% 32% -14.2%
15% -29.4% 20% -22.5%
20% -36.3% 15% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses98 / 82
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)180 / 185
History coverage100d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 +$16 +46%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -87%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$18 +786%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $37 +$51 +139%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$9 -75%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 −$14 -76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -89%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 +$13 +67%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$8 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 +$11 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $7 −$6 -86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$4 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$2 -39%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +52%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -86%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +107%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +275%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -42%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $2 $0 +18%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 $0 +19%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 $0 +31%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $7 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 10h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 11h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 26h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 34h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 36h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 38h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 42h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 42h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 43h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $18 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.16 · official $56.16 (match) · 450 history records