Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:03:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0A 0x0a35…b72b other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$386per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$7
other 22% −$2
culture 10% −$3
world 9% −$1
economics 9% −$6
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$908) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage89d
Avg bet$386
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 29 $1,099 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $60 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 29 $1,055 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 29 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 25 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 25 $33 $0 -1%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $20 $0 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $945 −$1 -0%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio May 21 $906 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $928 −$6 -1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? May 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $840 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $908 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $939 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $20 $0 -1%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $71 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,097 10m
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $60 17m
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 28m
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,032 44m
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 53m
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1,053 1h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,029 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $828 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $260 2h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 2h
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,089 2h
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 99¢ $82 35d
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 99¢ $70 35d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 94¢ $32 35d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 35d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 94¢ $11 35d
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 99¢ $13 35d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 94¢ $21 35d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 35d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 35d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $37 38d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $14 38d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 38d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $37 38d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 38d
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $944 39d
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? SELL No 100¢ $44 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records