Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:34:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0A
0x0a33…3a4f
crypto · 110 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,280 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$235 · open −$255
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30,584
Realized−$235
Unrealized−$255
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses59 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions8
Markets (closed)102 / 110
History coverage100d
Avg bet$3,169
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 8 History 102 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,700
7 days+$9,931
14 days+$12,497
30 days+$13,130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $9,854 $9,800 −$54 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 56¢ $6,925 $7,934 +$1,009 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $7,559 $7,534 −$25 (-0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $1,570 $1,487 −$83 (-5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 46¢ 30¢ $1,905 $1,230 −$676 (-35%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 69¢ 62¢ $1,268 $1,134 −$134 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,117 $1,112 −$5 (-0%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $641 $353 −$288 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $26,321 +$2,584 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $3,574 +$349 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $14,041 +$1,577 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $10,468 +$1,352 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $14,164 +$1,607 +11%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $6,506 −$353 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $10,250 +$585 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $12,405 +$2,363 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1,095 −$71 -6%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? Jun 07 $80 −$62 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $5,947 +$1,562 +26%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $277 −$258 -93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $2,520 −$1,466 -58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $17,996 +$2,728 +15%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 31 $2,863 −$23 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 29 $161 −$148 -92%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $303 +$96 +32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $4,539 −$557 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $4,550 +$209 +5%
New pandemic in 2026? May 25 $1,061 −$81 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $4,800 +$738 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $1,918 +$189 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 20 $500 +$55 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $1,000 +$100 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $200 +$56 +28%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $593 −$184 -31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $500 +$93 +19%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? May 05 $396 −$12 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 01 $3,947 +$1,086 +28%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? May 01 $500 −$203 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $500 +$235 +47%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $900 +$142 +16%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 15 $3,646 −$3,111 -85%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 14 $3,325 −$1,012 -30%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $1,774 +$851 +48%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 14 $4,639 −$4,594 -99%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 14 $3,531 −$1,263 -36%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 08 $4,277 +$340 +8%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $653 −$653 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 07 $35 +$12 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 07 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 06 $184 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 06 $135 +$44 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 06 $115 +$27 +23%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 05 $1,500 +$67 +4%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $5,900 +$927 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 03 $6,000 +$1,846 +31%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 03 $1,000 +$567 +57%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 03 $2,200 +$249 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 65% +$15,458
other 18% −$4,297
crypto 15% −$7,365
sports 2% −$4,184
politics 0% −$51
finance 0% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $2,441 21m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2,441 22m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,570 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $1,570 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,268 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1,261 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,350 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1,355 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $9,889 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $4,438 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $532 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $2,564 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 52¢ $3,923 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 28¢ $7,282 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,147 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 35¢ $1,000 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 33¢ $500 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $42 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $17 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,500 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $2,181 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,000 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 32¢ $600 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,500 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $5,170 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4,238 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $4,238 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $3,574 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.0% -10.4% 70% 40% -0.4%
≤30d 25 -4.9% -13.9% 64% 40% -1.5%
≤90d 98 -9.6% -18.2% 58% 45% -9.6%
all 102 -9.2% -17.9% 58% 43% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 43% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 25% -18.3%
15% -32.9% 12% -26.2%
20% -39.5% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,583.71 · official $30,583.71 (match) · 665 history records