Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0A 0x0a2f…905f sports 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 604d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$247 (-12%) realized −$246 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%63W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$137
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$224
other 24% −$135
politics 7% −$153
world 5% −$107
crypto 4% −$80
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +140.3% +117.4% 54% 52% -7.7%
≤30d 52 +126.5% +105.0% 54% 52% -4.2%
≤90d 85 +75.2% +58.5% 52% 49% -4.8%
all 142 +37.3% +24.2% 44% 43% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.2% 43% -19.2%
10% +12.4% 42% -26.9%
15% +1.5% 39% -34.0%
20% -8.5% 36% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +90% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$246
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses63 / 79
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)142 / 144
History coverage604d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Over 90¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$88 +442%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$82 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $38 +$12 +31%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $44 −$17 -39%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $108 +$15 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $74 −$49 -66%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$17 +324%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$26 -72%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$115 +1604%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$20 -67%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$15 +100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +596%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +152%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1825%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +71%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $61 −$24 -40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 +$24 +238%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $17 +$15 +88%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $82 15h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $19 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $38 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $25 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $13 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $4 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $8 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $44 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $87 45h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $80 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $35 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $24 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 57¢ $10 47h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $27 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $74 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $133 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.89 · official $104.36 (match) · 236 history records