Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:25:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a2d…00a4 other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$12
politics 20% −$5
sports 12% −$31
economics 6% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 105 -2.5% -11.8% 10% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 4% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage135d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $184 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $414 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $182 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,262 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $364 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $543 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $189 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $450 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $462 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $413 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $212 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 12 $187 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $192 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 10 $233 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $204 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $243 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $182 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $212 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $208 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $194 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $387 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 06 $239 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $245 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $179 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $240 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $225 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $427 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $175 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $567 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $33 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $33 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 4d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $34 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $32 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $32 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $38 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $38 16d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $184 22d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $184 37d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $180 65d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 66d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 66d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $182 66d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $162 66d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $162 67d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $222 67d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $222 67d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 67d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 67d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $170 67d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $170 67d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $226 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.89 · official $83.89 (match) · 331 history records