Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:20:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0A 0x0a27…2fdc sports 653 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 129d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$43 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate45%290W / 357L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$143
14 days−$250
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$444
politics 47% +$376
other 5% −$127
world 1% −$10
economics 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -6.9% -15.8% 63% 19% -16.3%
≤30d 206 -4.0% -13.2% 50% 21% -12.0%
≤90d 540 -2.9% -12.1% 46% 20% -11.2%
all 647 -1.3% -10.7% 45% 19% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 19% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 16% -19.1%
15% -27.1% 14% -26.9%
20% -34.2% 12% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses290 / 357
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions6
Markets (closed)647 / 653
History coverage129d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 647 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Yes 94¢ 90¢ $43 $41 −$2 (-4%)
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? No 93¢ 89¢ $43 $41 −$2 (-4%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 64¢ 44¢ $43 $30 −$13 (-30%)
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jeff Hurd be the Republican nominee for CO-03? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Antonia Ruzic 29¢ 40¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P Jun 27 $26 −$26 -99%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 27 $76 −$18 -24%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 27 $58 −$22 -38%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 27 $24 +$19 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $43 +$19 +44%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $43 +$7 +16%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 26 $3 $0 +1%
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Zvonareva vs Hsieh/Wang Jun 26 $2 $0 -2%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $43 −$41 -95%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $43 +$1 +3%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Zeynep Sonmez vs. Sara Bejlek: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $7 $0 -3%
Sonmez vs. Bejlek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $8 $0 -2%
Set Handicap: Sonmez (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) Jun 24 $8 $0 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Sonmez vs Bejlek Jun 24 $13 $0 -2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Sara Bejlek Jun 24 $14 $0 -2%
Sonmez vs. Bejlek: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $43 +$2 +5%
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Ivey be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? Jun 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $37 +$1 +4%
Will Kweisi Mfume be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? Jun 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $43 +$4 +10%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $43 +$6 +15%
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mark Conway be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? Jun 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Jun 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $43 +$4 +10%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $68 +$6 +8%
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Jun 24 $53 +$4 +7%
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $37 $0 +1%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 24 $43 +$3 +6%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 23 $125 +$18 +14%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 23 $63 +$14 +22%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $43 +$1 +3%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $43 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$5 +11%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper Jun 22 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 22 $49 +$25 +50%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $43 +$4 +9%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 21 $43 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jeff Hurd be the Republican nominee for CO-03? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 22m
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 64¢ $43 1h
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? BUY No 94¢ $15 2h
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? BUY No 93¢ $28 2h
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorad BUY Yes 94¢ $38 2h
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorad BUY Yes 95¢ $5 2h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr SELL Yes 94¢ $0 4h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr SELL Yes 94¢ $3 4h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr SELL Yes 94¢ $3 5h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 92¢ $2 5h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 91¢ $2 5h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 91¢ $2 5h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY Yes 80¢ $26 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Antonia Ruzic 29¢ $1 12h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Antonia Ruzic 29¢ $1 12h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 100¢ $36 16h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals $0 16h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals $0 17h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros $1 20h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $22 21h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $43 21h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 55¢ $24 21h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $21 21h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 50¢ $43 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 86¢ $43 21h
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 93¢ $3 22h
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Zvonareva vs Hsieh/Wang BUY Sutjiadi/Zvonareva 50¢ $2 31h
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 92¢ $3 33h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL New York Yankees $2 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.85 · official $155.85 (match) · 3500 history records