Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0A 0x0a26…1851 sports 555 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$101,502 (-8%) realized −$103,031 · open +$1,529
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%255W / 557L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,311per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Fees−$10,008est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$17,121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$23,379
other 18% −$17,475
world 16% −$20,497
crypto 9% −$2,062
politics 1% +$1,252
finance 1% −$2,151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 278 -95.7% -96.1% 1% 1% -90.3%
≤30d 422 -69.4% -72.4% 16% 14% -60.6%
≤90d 767 -40.5% -46.2% 31% 29% -31.3%
all 812 -39.4% -45.2% 31% 29% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.2% 29% -31.5%
10% -50.4% 28% -38.0%
15% ← realistic here -55.2% 25% -44.0%
20% -59.6% 20% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$2,023) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,205 vs −$1,210 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$17,121
Realized−$103,031
Unrealized+$1,529
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses255 / 557
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$10,008
Open positions11
Markets (closed)812 / 555
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$2,311
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 812 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 51¢ 52¢ $7,617 $7,646 +$30 (+0%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 96¢ $2,000 $3,081 +$1,081 (+54%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $2,706 $2,592 −$113 (-4%)
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 75¢ 79¢ $1,382 $1,461 +$78 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 66¢ 92¢ $1,000 $1,395 +$395 (+40%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 74¢ $467 $544 +$78 (+17%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 62¢ $378 $366 −$12 (-3%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 68¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? No 26¢ 6¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-79%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 14¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 470 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $115K on August 8? Jun 21 $350 −$350 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $660 −$660 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Daniil Medvedev vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Mexican Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Gael Monfils Jun 21 $647 −$640 -99%
South Africa vs. Cameroon: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Pump.fun dip to $0.003 before August? Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Estoril Praia win on 2025-11-07? Jun 21 $1,188 −$1,188 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $3,479 −$3,479 -100%
Will Jagiellonia Białystok win on 2025-11-27? Jun 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5? Jun 21 $269 −$269 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-21? Jun 21 $3,840 −$3,840 -100%
AC Milan vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? Jun 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Manchester City (-1.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 21 $7,040 −$7,098 -101%
Will US Avranches Mont-Saint-Michel win on 2025-12-19? Jun 21 $600 −$600 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-30? Jun 21 $1,640 −$1,640 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Jun 21 $1,127 −$1,127 -100%
Cameroon vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $925 −$925 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? Jun 21 $339 −$339 -100%
West Ham vs. Liverpool: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10,294 −$10,294 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $3,082 −$3,082 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 6? Jun 21 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 21 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
Tien vs. Kjaer: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $640 −$640 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Yannick Hanfmann vs Zachary Svajda Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? Jun 21 $691 −$545 -79%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 21 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2025-11-14? Jun 21 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2025-11-12? Jun 21 $710 −$710 -100%
Open Sud de France: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 21 $300 −$327 -109%
Will Aberdeen FC win on 2025-11-27? Jun 21 $180 −$180 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-21? Jun 21 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,057 −$1,057 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 21 $150 −$150 -100%
Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $530 −$530 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Jun 21 $600 −$600 -100%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Jun 21 $466 −$466 -100%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Gea Jun 21 $520 −$520 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $520 −$520 -100%
Will Genoa CFC vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Spurs Jun 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Jun 21 $250 −$250 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-07? Jun 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $2,290 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $2,299 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $1,300 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $1,000 2d
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 75¢ $1,346 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $3,646 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $303 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 12¢ $298 2d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 58¢ $2,553 2d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 57¢ $39 2d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 57¢ $147 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $2,137 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 40¢ $606 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 62¢ $955 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 58¢ $956 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $1,505 4d
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 67¢ $23 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 59¢ $1,017 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 62¢ $1,129 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 43¢ $996 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 43¢ $36 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $245 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 66¢ $1,000 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $70 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $2 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $1 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $155 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $26 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $142 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,120.93 · official $17,120.93 (match) · 3500 history records