Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a21…50d3 other 673 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,336 (-2%) realized −$2,539 · open +$203
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%324W / 344L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$1,094now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,517
7 days−$666
14 days−$482
30 days−$433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$3,800
sports 18% +$1,292
world 1% +$114
crypto 0% −$32
finance 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +23.0% +11.3% 50% 47% -15.6%
≤30d 117 +9.8% -0.7% 50% 48% -12.2%
≤90d 354 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 47% -8.2%
all 668 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 46% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 46% -11.9%
10% -20.1% 43% -20.3%
15% -27.8% 38% -28.0%
20% -34.9% 31% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$102 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$1,094
Realized−$2,539
Unrealized+$203
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses324 / 344
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions5
Markets (closed)668 / 673
History coverage228d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 668 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Over 88¢ 100¢ $500 $568 +$68 (+14%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 66¢ 82¢ $245 $306 +$61 (+25%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 100¢ $45 $99 +$54 (+119%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 315 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $535 +$272 +51%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$50 +982%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $212 +$86 +41%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$41 +134%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $208 +$201 +96%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +250%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $438 +$142 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$28 +344%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $67 +$66 +99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,022 −$1,013 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $341 −$337 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 −$90 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $172 −$170 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $122 +$114 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 +$14 +67%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$46 +226%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $416 +$348 +84%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $302 +$29 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $501 +$43 +9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$18 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $228 +$125 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $562 −$555 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $526 −$521 -99%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 +$87 +276%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 18m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $502 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $100 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $5 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes $5 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 5h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 13h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $30 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $29 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $8 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 13h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $31 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 13h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $41 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,093.96 · official $944.05 · 1625 history records