Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0A 0x0a1f…943e crypto 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$407 (+2%) realized +$251 · open +$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%65W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,888now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$394
7 days+$346
14 days+$352
30 days−$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$2,623
other 18% −$905
sports 5% −$50
culture 2% +$2,948
world 0% −$21
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +29.2% +16.9% 44% 44% +15.5%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 36% -23.6%
≤90d 82 +23.1% +11.3% 34% 33% -24.1%
all 186 +16.1% +5.1% 35% 31% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 31% -15.7%
10% -5.0% 30% -23.8%
15% -14.2% 23% -31.2%
20% -22.6% 20% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$65 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$2,888
Realized+$251
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses65 / 121
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions3
Markets (closed)186 / 189
History coverage136d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1,727 $1,774 +$47 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,000 $1,112 +$112 (+11%)
World Cup: Winless Team? No 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $36 +$201 +557%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $155 +$51 +33%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $177 +$243 +137%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $244 −$240 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $545 +$192 +35%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $27 −$26 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $18 +$6 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $523 −$523 -100%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? May 21 $509 +$27 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 21 $48 −$45 -95%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 20 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $4 $0 -11%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $4 $0 -10%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $18 −$11 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 03 $81 −$76 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 03 $59 +$20 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 03 $101 −$46 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 03 $143 +$39 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 03 $32 +$20 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 03 $53 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 27 $14 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 25 $92 −$86 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 25 $24 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 25 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 25 $47 +$46 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 25 $35 −$14 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 25 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 25 $61 −$18 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 25 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 25 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 25 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 24 $40 +$59 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 24 $49 +$26 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 24 $24 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 24 $29 +$70 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 24 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 24 $33 −$19 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 24 $9 −$8 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 88¢ $237 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 2h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 2h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 75¢ $155 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 85¢ $132 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 67¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 60¢ $18 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 60¢ $150 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 60¢ $14 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $177 4h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $244 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $81 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $23 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $94 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $292 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $264 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $270 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $281 35h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $22 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 5d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 48¢ $18 10d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 48¢ $6 10d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 36¢ $18 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,029 11d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 25¢ $523 17d
World Cup: Winless Team? BUY No 1¢ $4 19d
World Cup: Winless Team? BUY No 1¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,888.43 · official $2,888.43 (match) · 1069 history records